Writing is like T20 batting. If you block, you might as well retire to the pavilion! -- Pete Langman
Expat in Germany

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

The Beginning of the Exit!!

After a month of stretching and straining, finally the elections have ended. I was too excited to write about anything else and most of my articles since November were about politics only. Such was the impact of these elections. There is no doubt that these elections have a significant place for themselves in the history of our nation. Never before was an election this keenly followed!! I have seen two elections back in 2004 and 2009 but I have not seen so much campaigning in any of those elections. Probably there really is a wave, maybe a pro-Modi or an anti-congress. Whichever it is, we know who is going to benefit from it.

The moment elections end, various companies, especially the media start their 'exit polls.' They try to predict who the winner is in the elections by taking opinions from those who voted, calling this a survey. They might not be exactly correct. But these exit polls tell the pulse of the voters. Of course, it doesn't take me the pain of surveying, sampling, plotting, finding T-factor, S-factor etc.etc. to predict who is going to win this season. The exit poll surveys all give a huge badgap. They for example, predict 257-340 seats for one party. Hell! That is almost a hundred numbers apart. What precision is there in this? Is it useful at all?

Utter Blunders!!
A professor at the Institute for Mathematical Sciences once said that thought the sample size is generally small, these surveys are done area-wise, caste-wise(unfortunate), religion-wise(unfortunate), work-wise. When such large varieties of samples are taken, one need not worry about the sample size. There are errors. That is anyway there. Also, the exit poll predictions have had been disastrous since times unknown. But, it is okay, people need to pass time before the results are out and television channels have to grab that opportunity especially with huge competition from the sports channels!!

India must have voted for betterment. I did. Not the exit polls, the results are just round the corner. The country has seen a presidential kind of campaigning this time. With single-man shows dominating in general for most political parties. This is not bad. I don't know if it's good. But whoever goes to that central bungalow in 7, Race course road should do good to the nation. I seriously hope for a strong and stable government, unlike Arvind Kejriwal!!